Work Data Fears
Newcastle Herald
Wednesday October 7, 1998
CONTRADICTORY workforce figures could indicate the Hunter and the rest of the nation heading for an economic downturn, the Hunter Valley Research Foundation said yesterday.
Economist Mr Andrew Searles said job advertisement indexes compiled by the foundation and the ANZ Bank were rising, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics found that job vacancies were falling.
In seasonally unadjusted terms, the ANZ index rose by 16.2% while The Newcastle Herald index rose by 18%.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the ANZ index rose by 3.5% in September, taking it to the highest level since March, 1990.
The figures are complicated by speculation that abolishing the CES has led to an increase in newspaper job advertising.
An ANZ economist Mr Paul Braddick said there was anecdotal evidence to support this but nothing statistical.
Mr Searles said there probably was a link, but he could not say how important it was.
He said `the fine print' of the Hunter's employment figures also showed worrying trends.
The jobless rate had remained reasonably steady but only because the number of people looking for work had fallen.
`The participation rate falling hides a potential increase in unemployment,' Mr Searles said.
He said the foundation was preparing its next quarterly assessment of the Hunter economy.
Some sectors, such as building, appeared to be doing well but other news looked less rosy.
© 1998 Newcastle Herald